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6.1 Allgemein
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http://themonkeycage.org/blog/2012/01/2
9/how-do-states-act-after-they-get-nucl
ear-weapons/
Die Geschichte zeige, dass Staaten mit Atomwaffen außenpolitisch keineswegs aggressiver agieren, schreibt James Fearon angesichts der Debatte über die Folgen des iranischen Atomprogramms. "To be clear, I'd strongly prefer that the Iranian regime not get the bomb, mainly because of the risks of further proliferation in the region and attendant risks of preventive war and loss of control of weapons. But attacking Iran seems likely to guarantee pursuit till acquisition, to more effectively license future attacks on Israel, and to greatly increase popular support for the current Iranian regime and a course of nuclear self-defense. (...) We've heard these same concerns before, regarding Stalin's USSR, Mao's China, Kim Jong-il's North Korea, and about the mortal mutual enemies of India and Pakistan. All these cases have been very scary, and it's understandable that the prospect of a nuclear Iran is incredibly scary for Israelis. But so far, in none of these prior cases do the more extreme fears look historically justified."
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree
/2012/jan/30/deadly-drones-us-cowards-w
ar
George Monbiot fürchtet, dass die amerikanische Förderung der Drohnentechnologie dazu führen wird, dass künftige Krieg noch blutiger werden. "It may be true, as the US air force says, that because a drone can circle and study a target for hours before it strikes, its missiles are less likely to kill civilians than those launched from a piloted plane. (The air force has yet to explain how it reconciles this with its boast that drones 'greatly shorten decision time'.) But it must also be true that the easier and less risky a deployment is, the more likely it is to happen. (...) With these unmanned craft, governments can fight a coward's war, a god's war, harming only the unnamed. The danger is likely to escalate as drone warfare becomes more automated and the lines of accountability less clear." |
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http://newhumanist.org.uk/2735/inside-t
he-heresy-files
Cullen Murphy schreibt, dass die Wurzeln des modernen Polizeistaats in der mittelalterlichen Inquisition der katholischen Kirche zu finden seien. "Looking at the Inquisition, one sees the West crossing a threshold from one kind of world into another. Persecution acquired a modern platform - the advantages afforded by a growing web of standardised law, communications, administrative supervision and controlled mechanisms of force. It was run not merely by warriors but by an educated elite; not merely by thugs but by skilled professionals. Every subsequent outbreak of persecution, political or religious, has been abetted by these same forces. They ensure that the basic trajectory of repression will always look remarkably the same. They suggest why persecution is so difficult to stop. And they help explain why the Inquisition template has translated so easily from the religious sphere into the world of secular governments and secular ideologies. Through the lens of the Inquisition we can glimpse the world we inhabit now." |
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http://dartthrowingchimp.wordpress.com/
2012/01/19/what-do-we-know-about-democr
atic-transitions-a-listsicle-of-9-judgm
ents/
Der Blogger "dartthrowingchimp" hat vor einem Jahr neun
Lehren zusammen gestellt, die aus vielen Beispielen des
Übergangs von einem autoritären Regime zur Demokratie
gezogen werden könnten. Der Arabische Frühling habe viele
dieser Thesen bestätigt. Die neunte und letzte Lehre
lautet: "The most likely outcome of a democratic transition
nowadays is a competitive authoritarian regime, either
because initial elections will be unfair by design or
because the party that wins those elections will quickly
use state resources to advantage itself in future
contests." |
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http://www.ntiindex.org/
Die "Nuclear Threat Initiative" (NTI) hat einen "Nuclear
Materials Security Index" erstellt, der zeigt, welche
Länder nach heutigen Kenntnissen über waffenfähiges
Atommaterial verfügen. "The NTI Nuclear Materials Security
Index is a first-of-its-kind public benchmarking project of
nuclear materials security conditions on a country-by-
country basis. The NTI Index, prepared with the Economist
Intelligence Unit, was created to spark an international
discussion about priorities required to strengthen
security, and most importantly, encourage governments to
provide assurances and take actions to reduce risks." |
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http://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/
Spieltheoretiker-warnt-vor-Ueberschaetz
ung-der-Abschreckung-1401325.html
Durch neue Technologien zur Entwicklung von
waffentauglichem Uran könnte sich die Zahl der Atommächte
in den nächsten Jahren US-Militärexperten zufolge weiter
erhöhen. Das Prinzip der Abschreckung könnte dadurch
außer Kraft gesetzt werden. "Die Abschreckungstheorien des
Kalten Krieges basierten darauf, dass sich zwei Spieler in
einem Nullsummenspiel befinden - wenn einer gewinnt,
verliert der andere. In Spielen mit mehr als zwei Spielern
nimmt jedoch die Komplexität exponentiell mit der Zahl der
Spieler zu. Auf die nukleare Abschreckung bezogen, heiße
das, dass die Instabilität rapide zunehme, sagt Martin
Shubik, der früher an der Yale University Spieltheorie
gelehrt hat. 'Meine zentrale Schlussfolgerung ist, dass die
USA gut beraten wären, eine globale Gruppe einzuberufen,
die alle Nuklearstaaten überwacht', sagt Shubik. 'Ohne
etwas Derartiges ist die Wahrscheinlichkeit nicht sehr
hoch, dass wir in den nächsten 20 Jahren einen Atomkrieg
vermeiden können', warnt Shubik." |
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http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2
012/01/03/after_america
Zbigniew Brzezinski, Sicherheitsberater des früheren US-
Präsidenten Jimmy Carter, fürchtet, dass dem Niedergang
der USA als globaler Supermacht eine lange Periode
internationaler Instabilität folgen würde. "(...) if
America falters, the world is unlikely to be dominated by a
single preeminent successor - not even China. International
uncertainty, increased tension among global competitors,
and even outright chaos would be far more likely outcomes.
While a sudden, massive crisis of the American system - for
instance, another financial crisis - would produce a fast-
moving chain reaction leading to global political and
economic disorder, a steady drift by America into
increasingly pervasive decay or endlessly widening warfare
with Islam would be unlikely to produce, even by 2025, an
effective global successor." |
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http://www.thenation.com/article/165317
/world-really-safer-without-soviet-unio
n
Der letzte Präsident der Sowjetunion, Michail Gorbatschow,
hat für die Zeitschrift "The Nation" die Entwicklung der
internationalen Sicherheit in den vergangenen 20 Jahren
analysiert. Sein Fazit: "In short, the world without the
Soviet Union has not become safer, more just or more
stable. Instead of a new world order - that is, enough
global governance to prevent international affairs from
becoming dangerously unpredictable - we have had global
turmoil, a world drifting in uncharted waters. The global
economic crisis that broke out in 2008 made that abundantly
clear. The West must undertake a critical reassessment of
all that preceded this painful crisis. It is more than just
a crisis of global finance or even a crisis of an economic
model based on a race for hyperprofits and excessive
consumption that grinds down the earth's resources and
ruins nature. The crisis grew out of the arrogant
conviction of 'the collective West' that it had the recipes
to solve all problems and that there was no alternative to
the 'Washington Consensus,' which claimed to work equally
well for all countries." |
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08. Februar 2012
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