Dsa Bild zeigt ein Hinweisschild an einem abgesperrten Düsseldorfer Spielplatz mit der Aufschrift "gesund bleiben". Wegen der Verbreitung des Corona-Virus sind Bürgerinnen und Bürger bis auf weiteres aufgefordert Sozialkontakte zu meiden.

27.5.2020

Die Corona-Krise und ihre Folgen

Ausgewählte Links aus der Sicherheitspolitischen Presseschau

Links vom 18.05.2020

"Juden und Christen in der Türkei: In Corona-Zeiten als Sündenböcke missbraucht"

Frank Nordhausen berichtet über die Ängste religiöser Minderheiten in der Türkei, in der Coronakrise rassistischen Übergriffen ausgesetzt zu sein. "Mit einem dramatischen Appell haben nichtmuslimische Gemeinschaften in der Türkei vor 'rassistischen Übergriffen' auf ihre Mitglieder gewarnt und die Regierung unter Staatschef Recep Tayyip Erdogan um Schutz gebeten. In der vergangenen Woche forderten das Rabbinat der türkisch-jüdischen Gemeinde, der griechisch-orthodoxe Patriarch von Istanbul und das armenisch-orthodoxe Patriarchat Ankara die Regierung auf, alle notwendigen Maßnahmen zu ihrer Sicherheit zu ergreifen. Anlass der gemeinsamen Erklärung war eine Hetzkampagne der regierungsnahen Zeitschrift Gercek Hayat (Echtes Leben) gegen die religiösen Minderheiten. Diese befürchten offenbar, in der durch die Corona-Epidemie verstärkten Wirtschaftskrise als Sündenböcke missbraucht zu werden." (Frankfurter Rundschau vom 18.05.2020) https://kurz.bpb.de/onr

"The Pandemic’s Geopolitical Aftershocks Are Coming"

Tom McTague warnt, dass der ersten Welle der Corona-Pandemie eine "geopolitische zweite Welle" folgen könnte. Sicherheitsexperten hätten bereits entsprechende Szenarien entworfen: "Imagine a scenario: Just as Europe and the United States begin to feel as if they have the coronavirus under control, it takes hold in the developing world. Exhausted, indebted, and desperate for their own economies to get back up to speed, richer countries are too slow to help. Panic ensues. Migrants mass in southern Europe, which is still struggling to pull itself out of a coronavirus-induced depression. Somewhere, a state defaults on debt held largely by Western financial institutions. In the chaos, an autocrat eyes an opportunity for a land grab. A United States already unwilling to take the lead leaves China to step into the void. This is just one (invented) scenario of a number that are raising concerns in Western capitals and that were laid out to me in conversations with more than half a dozen leading security experts, academics, and government advisers in recent weeks. Of those I spoke with, few doubted that a second wave was coming. The real concern was where it would land." (The Atlantic vom 18.05.2020) https://kurz.bpb.de/onw

"The Miner’s Canary: COVID-19 and the Rise of Non-Traditional Security Threats"

Nach Ansicht von Anca Agachi vom Atlantic Council sollte die Corona-Pandemie als "Vorbote" einer neuen sicherheitspolitischen Landschaft verstanden werden, die von nicht-traditionellen Bedrohungen geprägt sein wird. "These challenges will act as threat multipliers, further exacerbating existing security dilemmas and the complexity of the 2020s. COVID-19 is the template for what lies ahead, that is, unless we take action. The sooner we understand the fundamental transformation ahead of us, the sooner we can adapt our concepts and institutions to guarantee the safety of people, states, and the international community. (…) COVID-19 can be a bleak template of how non-traditional security threats ravage the international system. Without action, we may see in the future a worrying pattern of extensive loss of life, compounded subsequent shocks and even outright conflict. In 2015, regional events like the migration flow to Europe during 2015-2016 from the Middle East and North Africa was arguably a key factor in social polarization and the renaissance of the extreme right in places like Germany, France, Poland and Hungary. Today, the pandemic is leaving in its wake one of the worst economic crises since the Great Depression. Continued levels of low growth combined with high levels of unemployment can be a recipe for rising populism and further political fallout in the new decade." (Defense One vom 16.05.2020) https://kurz.bpb.de/onx

"Why We Need the World Health Organization, Despite Its Flaws"

Ian Bremmer meint, dass der WHO in der amerikanischen Corona-Debatte gegenwärtig zu Unrecht der Schwarze Peter zugeschoben wird. Die Kritik an der Weltgesundheitsorganisation sei zum Teil durchaus berechtigt, ein Rückzug der USA würde allerdings ein politisches Vakuum entstehen lassen, das von China nur allzu gern gefüllt würde. "China, which didn’t stop possibly infected citizens from traveling the world, could use its financial muscle to build a new global health agency, one that could benefit from China’s unique position in the global medical-supply chain to become first responders to health crises. (…) A Chinese version of the WHO would not allow the transparency that the world needs from such an organization. Today’s WHO, like all multinational institutions working in politically sensitive areas, has big flaws. Like any U.N. agency, it can’t function without the goodwill of the governments it must rely upon for access. The WHO can be accused of not calling out China for its first critical response to this virus, but the organization could not study the virus from outside Wuhan. Call Beijing a liar, and the resulting eviction of WHO officials from China could kill millions. Scrapping this organization would leave us racing to build a new one before the next crisis." (TIME.com vom 14.05.2020) https://kurz.bpb.de/ony

"A Healthy Dose of Realism: Stopping COVID-19 Doesn't Start with the WHO"

Der Politikwissenschaftler Frank L. Smith III widerspricht dagegen der Ansicht, dass eine erfolgreiche Bekämpfung der Corona-Pandemie nur unter der Führung der Weltgesundheitsorganisation möglich sei. Wichtiger sei eine effektive Kooperation der Großmächte. Als historischen Beleg für seine These verweist er auf die erfolgreiche Ausrottung der Pocken während des Kalten Kriegs. "Conventional wisdom credits the WHO for eradicating smallpox, and yet, contrary to popular belief, WHO leadership opposed this campaign. The eradication of smallpox started and succeeded thanks to the Soviet Union and United States. This political history provides insight into how to combat COVID-19 during the current era of great-power competition. Eradicating smallpox was the greatest public health victory in history. (…) A great-power concert won’t save the world. It will help nation-states — particularly the United States and China — help themselves in the midst of great-power competition. It will also accomplish more than damning the WHO or expecting miracles from international institutions. As with the eradication of smallpox, the WHO and the rest of the world will follow when the great powers choose to lead." (War on the Rocks vom 15.05.2020) https://kurz.bpb.de/onz

"Kaspersky: 'Greater Frenzy' Of Cybercrime During COVID-19 Lockdowns"

Die internationale Cyberkriminalität hat während des Corona-Lockdowns deutlich zugenommen, so der CEO des russischen IT-Sicherheitsunternehmens Kaspersky Lab. "In an interview with the TASS news agency that was published on May 14, Yevgeny Kaspersky said that the quarantines 'have forced cybercriminals to hunt for prey with greater frenzy.' 'Every day we fish out several million files on the suspicion they may have malicious functions. Also, every day we identify more than 300,000 malicious samples we’ve never come across,' Kaspersky said, adding that each of those samples can be used hundreds of times. According to Kaspersky, as people have to stay at home due to the coronavirus, they spend more time surfing the net to buy food and other items and sometimes venture into no-go areas, which has led to an increase in cyberattacks by 25 percent globally." (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty vom 14.05.2020) https://kurz.bpb.de/oo4

"Von bösen Mächten wunderbar geborgen"

Anselm Neft analysiert auf Zeit Online die Funktion von Verschwörungstheorien in Zeiten der Krise. "Über das Coronavirus zirkulieren sogenannte Verschwörungstheorien. Manche Menschen glauben an sie. Und als Glauben lässt sich das Phänomen auch am ehesten analysieren." (Zeit Online vom 13.05.2020) https://kurz.bpb.de/oo5

"We are pushing the world’s poorest to the brink"

Daniel Ben-Ami macht auf die Folgen des westlichen Corona-Lockdowns für die ärmsten Länder der Welt aufmerksam. Die globale Wirtschaftskrise könnte die Einwohner dieser Länder sehr viel härter treffen als die unmittelbaren gesundheitlichen Folgen der Corona-Pandemie, so seine Warnung. "Poorer countries – sometimes called developing economies or emerging markets – are facing not one but several interrelated shocks: the health impact of the pandemic itself; the domestic economic impact of shutdowns; the economic shock caused by the falling demand from the West; and the painful reverberations of tightening financial conditions. (…) If economic output in the advanced economies contracts by six per cent this year – as forecast by the IMF – and their economies slump, the poorer countries will suffer a loss in income from exports. (…) the plight of the poorer countries gives added weight to the demands to end the generalised lockdown in the West. Certainly, the most vulnerable section of the population should be shielded. But shutting down economies for prolonged periods will have devastating human consequences, not only on the richer countries, but, even more so, in the poorer ones." (spiked vom 18.05.2020) https://kurz.bpb.de/oo6

"The pandemic is creating fresh opportunities for organised crime"

Das organisierte Verbrechen betrachte die Coronakrise in vielen Ländern als Rückschlag, aber auch als Gelegenheit, berichtet der britische Economist. "Most worrying, says [Jürgen Stock, secretary-general of Interpol, the world policing body], is the potential for covid-19 to create the ideal conditions for the spread of serious, organised crime. (…) more traditional organised criminal activities have been hampered by the lockdowns. Protection rackets, prostitution rings, illegal gambling and the drugs trade all depend on people being able to move around freely. (…) The biggest money-spinner for most organised crooks is the drugs trade. Mr Stock says early reports suggest the global business, estimated at around $500bn, has been disrupted — but only temporarily and partially. 'For many cartels and syndicates it’s not a big problem', he explains, 'because of the money that is available at that level. They have immense liquidity.' (…) A deep or prolonged depression will open up rich opportunities for crooks in at least three areas. High unemployment will make it easier for mobsters to recruit people. Government recovery schemes will give them a chance to muscle in on juicy public contracts. And lower corporate profits will make it easier for mafias to take over businesses that can then be used to launder illicit gains." (The Economist vom 16.05.2020) https://kurz.bpb.de/oo7


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