Development of "mega-" and "metacities"
According to UN data, in 2008 the number of urbanites worldwide surpassed that of the rural population. It is likely that in 2050 more than two-thirds (72%, or 6.3 billion) of the earth’s population will live in cities
Table 2: Development of City Agglomerations with more than 10 Million Inhabitants 2011 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Population (millions) | Average annual rate of change (percentage) | |||||||
1970 | 1990 | 2011 | 2025 | 1970-1990 | 1990-2011 | 2011-2025 | ||
The author’s own representation based on data from UN World Urbanization Prospects. The 2011 Revision. | ||||||||
Africa | Lagos (Nigeria) | 1,4 | 4,8 | 11,2 | 18,9 | 6,08 | 4,08 | 3,71 |
Cairo (Egypt) | 5,6 | 9,1 | 11,2 | 14,7 | 2,42 | 1,00 | 1,98 | |
Asia | Tokyo (Japan) | 23,3 | 32,5 | 37,2 | 38,7 | 1,67 | 0,64 | 0,27 |
Delhi (India) | 3,5 | 9,7 | 22,7 | 32,9 | 5,07 | 4,03 | 2,67 | |
Shanghai (China) | 6,0 | 7,8 | 20,2 | 28,4 | 1,30 | 4,52 | 2,43 | |
Mumbai (India) | 5,8 | 12,4 | 19,7 | 26,6 | 3,80 | 2,20 | 2,12 | |
Beijing (China) | 4,4 | 6,8 | 15,6 | 22,6 | 2,14 | 3,96 | 2,66 | |
Dhaka (Bangladesh) | 1,4 | 6,6 | 15,4 | 22,9 | 7,86 | 4,02 | 2,84 | |
Calcutta (India) | 6,9 | 10,9 | 14,4 | 18,7 | 2,26 | 1,33 | 1,87 | |
Karachi (Pakistan) | 3,1 | 7,1 | 13,9 | 20,2 | 4,15 | 3,16 | 2,68 | |
Manila (Philippines) | 3,5 | 8,0 | 11,9 | 16,3 | 4,07 | 1,89 | 2,26 | |
Osaka – Kobe (Japan) | 9,4 | 11,0 | 11,5 | 12,0 | 0,80 | 0,19 | 0,33 | |
Guangzhou (China) | 1,5 | 3,1 | 10,8 | 15,5 | 3,45 | 6,01 | 2,54 | |
Shenzhen (China) | 0,0 | 0,9 | 10,6 | 15,5 | 18,44 | 11,89 | 2,71 | |
North America | New York - Newark (USA) | 16,2 | 16,1 | 20,4 | 23,6 | -0,03 | 1,12 | 1,05 |
Los Angeles – Long Beach – Santa Ana (USA) | 8,4 | 10,9 | 13,4 | 15,7 | 1,31 | 0,99 | 1,13 | |
Latin America | Mexico-City (Mexico) | 8,8 | 15,3 | 20,4 | 24,6 | 2,79 | 1,38 | 1,32 |
São Paulo (Brazil) | 7,6 | 14,8 | 19,9 | 23,2 | 3,31 | 1,42 | 1,08 | |
Buenos Aires (Argentina) | 8,1 | 10,5 | 13,5 | 15,5 | 1,30 | 1,20 | 0,98 | |
Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) | 6, | 9,6 | 12,0 | 13,6 | 1,84 | 1,05 | 0,93 | |
Europe | Moscow (Russian Federation) | 7,1 | 9,0 | 11,6 | 12,6 | 1,17 | 1,22 | 0,56 |
Istanbul (Turkey) | 2,8 | 6,6 | 11,3 | 14,9 | 4,30 | 2,58 | 2,00 | |
Paris (France) | 8,2 | 9,3 | 10,6 | 12,2 | 0,64 | 0,62 | 0,97 |
Urbanization in regional perspective
However, small and middle-sized cities under 500,000 inhabitants will grow considerably faster than megacities
Figure 5: Share of Urban Population according to Region (bpb) Lizenz: cc by-nc-nd/3.0/de/
Figure 5: Share of Urban Population according to Region (bpb) Lizenz: cc by-nc-nd/3.0/de/
A large share of the city and urban agglomerations that grew in Africa, Asia or South America did so unplanned in past decades. The infrastructure (streets, water supply and disposal systems, electricity, and waste disposal) has developed for the most part less dynamically than the size of the urban population. Large social issues and the erection of slums have accompanied this process. Slums are defined as informal, mostly overpopulated settlements characterized by precarious building structures, poorly built infrastructure, and limited protection from weather conditions and intruders. At present, it is likely that almost one billion people live in slums worldwide, with vast differences in distribution across regions of the world. Notably in sub-Saharan Africa more than two-thirds of the people living in cities are classed as slum inhabitants, and a rate of two-fifths is assumed for Asia
Rural-urban migration in the example of China
To what extent the accelerated integration of an economy into the world market can impact the growth of cities, rural-urban migration and intra- and interregional migration is shown in the example of the People’s Republic of China. In 1976, as the founder figure of the People’s Republic died with Mao Zedong, 82% of the total population lived in rural districts. The economic revolution began in the 1980s, which linked the gradual introduction of market economy elements with the opening to the world market and ever more strongly supported exports as a driver for growth. The rapid industrialization of the country led to rapid urbanization. In 2009, the share of city inhabitants had already reached 46 percent (620 million). In 2011, for the first time, more than half of China’s population lived in cities. However, many of the new city dwellers were only tolerated because they were seen as indispensible laborers. They did, however, not have the necessary permission to migrate to and live in a city
The direction of migration movements has not changed considerably since the 1990s. Migration destinations for those domestically relocating are the mega-urban regions in the Pearl River Delta which stretch along the Chinese east coast, including Shanghai, the Yangzi Delta and the Peking-Tianjin region. The provinces that attract most of the internal migrants are Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Shandong
Rural-urban labor migrants are furthermore also employed for the most part in informal sectors of the labor market which remain characterized by high health risks, heavy physical exertion and difficult wage conditions. The interregional migrants generally work longer for considerably less money than those in the workforce who permanently reside in cities. To some extent the miserable wage and working conditions are often tolerated by the local authorities to enable the establishment of new companies
Many things speak for the scope of interregional migration in China to continue climbing if the regionally highly unequally distributed growth of industry production and services continues. The economic growth in the coastal urban agglomerations depends upon migration from the countryside and smaller cities. The Chinese example illustrates the high economic potential of interregional migration. It has reduced un- and underemployment in past years in some parts of the country
This text is part of the policy brief on Interner Link: "Global Migration in the Future".