1.4.2005 | Von:
Dr. Christina Boswell
Prof. Dr. Thomas Straubhaar

What overall picture can we derive from this analysis?

The growing importance of the knowledge-based economy and continued deindustrialisation will generate increased demand for qualified and highly-qualified workers.
Ein Techniker arbeitet am 11.07.2013 an einem Flugtriebwerk auf dem Firmengelände der MTU Maintenance in Hannover (Niedersachsen). (© picture-alliance/dpa)

However, assuming that current demographic and educational trends persist, domestic labour supply will not be able to keep up with this shift in demand. A generally shrinking labour force, accompanied by stagnation in the trend towards better qualifications, is likely to create acute shortages of skilled workers. Meanwhile, ageing populations will also create a significant rise in the demand for healthcare workers with various skills levels. Going back to the typology of labour shortages, we can say that future gaps will be characterised by qualitative mismatch, exacerbated by aggregate shortages. These types of shortages may be further aggravated by continued low occupational and regional mobility on the part of domestic workers, especially in low-skilled work.

Labour force in Germany 1998 and 2015 by levels of qualificationLabour force in Germany 1998 and 2015 by levels of qualification Lizenz: cc by-nc-nd/2.0/de (bpb)
A report commissioned by the Immigration Council in 2004 listed 14 areas with labour shortages, including health (doctors, physiotherapists, pharmacists), engineers (machine and aeroplane construction, machine building technicians) and services (insurance experts, qualified trade representatives).



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